Introducing TwellyBetting

Well I thought I'd give it a go. I have joined Twitter to see what the fuss is about. You have probably already seen the real time feed on the right.

I must admit it strikes me as a fantastic way to disseminate tips and market opportunities amongst ourselves very quickly.

I would certainly be interested in following your thoughts on the betting markets.

Apologies

I am sorry for not posting in the last week. I have been very busy at work including the weekend so literally didn't get a chance to post.

Celebrity Big Brother wasn't great for me. I managed lay off some of Verne due to overexposure but still lost some cash on him. I am annoyed because I tried to lay off everything at 1.4's but wasn't taken on - I suspect I have the same problem with Ray Quinn coming up as well!

Big Brother is getting less votes and more unpredictable. I must remember this for the summer.

I will post my Dancing On Ice thoughts later in the week.

News Of The World Vizu Poll

The NOTW poll remains Verne-centric and I suspect is the most accurate.

Digital Spy's Contrary Poll

Sorry for the poor picture quality.

Here is why Verne's price is holding up. The Digital Spy poll is often right. It is also often wrong. We shall see.

CBB: Google Trends Update

Increasing interest for Verne and Latoya in recent days.

Verne's driving stunt was very funny and would have gained a lot of votes. His price will finally start to come down in the next two days.

The series is petering out though. It has been dull.

Celebrity Big Brother: Google Trends

Here is a quick cut from Google Trends looking at who I consider to be the four main players in CBB.

The initial spike is to be expected but what stands out is the sustained interest in Coolio. I think a lot of that will be due Gangsta's Paradise being dusted off but he is certainly making an impression which is not always a bad thing.

One to watch out for if he makes the last few as a possible bet for second (if possible - I haven't checked).

Big night for Verne tonight, he has been treading water a little. I am sure I am not the only one concerned with his lack of action. I want him to go out and grab this competition with both hands. The Teddy Bear costume will help. Saying all that, I haven't laid off yet though and he probably offers good value at the moment after his micro drift. Channel 4 are also showing Goldmember in the next week which will help.

Dancing On Ice: Early Thoughts

In a guest post on another blog, I picked out Roxanne Pallett and Michael Underwood as good backs as well as Ray as a good back because he will trade lower. Due to the unfortunate circumstances of having a day job, I missed out on the really juicy odds available last week - which was bloody annoying. Ray's price did plunge as expected and I have traded out already with a tidy profit. There is no value in the dwarfish scally at the moment but he came across better than I thought he would - although thinking about it he will make the final and be 1.4-1.5ish at a guess.

Michael Underwood was frankly poor with no improvement and will go soonish, I have taken a smal loss on him already. Roxanne is my main hope at the moment of a big win. I have also included a gratuitous shot for your perusal (my site traffic doubles with pictures like this).

Is there room for Todd and Coleen? For the moment, yes - but this will change. Todd is no John Sergeant in my opinion. Coleen is going to stay a while, the Loose Women will really push it as well. I have her at 36's-44's.

Eviction predictions soon.

Supertool: Verne Getting Even More Popular

The title says it all. Little V's popularity has increased in the last 6 days by roughly 20%.

The new techniques results are actually about 2 days behind current events so are no good for instant results which is a shame.

I was thinking of reducing my overexposed position on Verne but may wait a little longer after this - tonights show looks potentially very funny.

NOTW Poll: Favourite Male

Here is a poll from The News Of The World website.

No real surprises here.

The favourite female poll does not have enough votes to comment on - even for this site!

My New Supertool

The tips round here may be about to improve even more. I have developed a new Supertool to use in TV betting.

I won't be divulging my methods on this because I think it could make me a lot of money and you lot would try it to nab some!

Simulations have revealed success for picking winners in Britain's Got Talent (wow - 40-1), Big Brother, American Idol and X Factor. A little more refinement is needed at the moment though.

This could be a big one. I am very excited about it.

Google Trends For Celebrity Big Brother

No massive surprises yet in my opinion - Mini-Me got the most early interest.

I am still big on Verne and happy.

Celebrity Big Brother Digital Spy Poll

I haven't posted a poll in a while. This is the last four days of the Digital Spy CBB poll plotted on a graph. This poll is notoriously unreliable, but occasionally shows perception changes earlier than anyone else. The DS BB fanatics are quite media savvy and tend to spot things early on. The other thing is that they are contrarians and often oppose favourites for no real reason.

The numbers are very small but the graph may show Terry running out of steam a little. He has been drifting on Betfair today as well. Did I say the numbers are small!

I still can't see Verne losing out.

A Nice Rigged Poll For You

Here is proof that you can't trust certain internet polls. Someone has been having fun.

However, if you take out Tommy Sheridan I suspect it is fairly accurate at the moment.

I am going to leave my Verne bet running (his price came in again as I promised you it would). The question is whether to back Terry properly - I did a little trading on him the other day on Betfair. I am not. He is getting a lot of exposure this week but may fade a little next week. He will probably continue to get good edits though.

Coolio is starting to grate a little so I will avoid him for now. La Toya will rise in the next few days as well.

If she makes the final night Ulrika could be a good bet for Top Female - I don't think this will happen though.

Sit tight with Verne is still my advice.

The Oscar's 2009 Betting: Special Guest Post

Richard at www.100betting.co.uk has studied the recent winners of the three main betting categories in an attempt to unearth some trends that could help us make the Oscars a profitable affair.

One thing to remember: Academy members nominate in the first instance to get it down to five nominees per category. They then vote again on those five nominees to decide on a winner.

A strong theme for this year’s Oscars could well be that of optimism. In the midst of an economic crisis that has crippled the USA one has a funny feeling that the ‘against all odds’ and feel good films could out. So too could the patriotic vote - the American movie industry needs its films to do well.

Leading Actor

2000 Russell Crowe Gladiator

2001 Denzel Washington Training Day

2002 Adrien Brody The Pianist

2003 Sean Penn Mystic River

2004 Jamie Foxx Ray

2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote

2006 Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland

2007 Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Adrien Brody’s performance in The Pianist and the other seven performances were of strong, larger than life characters - even the Deputy Dog sounding Capote.

* Performances of real life characters won in 04, 05 and 06, suggesting that another for the 2008 winner would be overload.

* After four consecutive winners from films set in the ‘past’, time could be ripe for a contemporary winner.

Leading Actress

2000 Julia Roberts Erin Brokovich

2001 Halle Berry Monster’s Ball

2002 Nicole Kidman The Hours

2003 Charlize Theron Monster

2004 Hillary Swank Million Dollar Baby

2005 Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line

2006 Helen Mirren The Queen

2007 Mario Cotillard La Vie en Rose

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* Take out Reese Witherspoon and the other seven winners have all portrayed women with a definite ‘struggle’. Whether they fought against the ‘system’, the law or history, they in essence gave a performance of unexpected strength in the face of adversity in all its forms.

* The last two winners have been historical figures and just like the Leading Actor category, I cannot see them repeating the dose this year. They also both happened to be foreign actresses - again a third in row is very unlikely.

* The last eight winners have also tended to follow a historical (set pre-1990)-contemporary repeating pattern. If the pattern holds true then I’d be looking at a contemporary winner.

Best Picture

2000 Gladiator

2001 A Beautiful Mind

2002 Chicago

2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

2004 Million Dollar Baby

2005 Crash

2006 The Departed

2007 No Country for Old Men

Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:

* The first thing to notice is that the Best Picture is exactly that - the best film taking into account the some of all its parts. In fact only Million Dollar Baby provided an Oscar for Actor/Actress in a Leading Role - Hillary Swank.

* The last three winners have all been quite graphic, especially the last two in which violence was the running theme. A more serene winner this year?

* From 2001 onwards the winner has tended to be a film in which there is more than one main character, more than one big named actor/actress and certainly from 2002 onwards the portrayal of a ‘multi-character journey’. There’s no real ‘solo’ film where one big named actor/actress dominates in the line up of past winners.

So there you have it, some pointers that should help you in your trading of the Oscars. Final nominations are announced on the 22nd January and I'll be back then to apply these key points to the final five in each category, as well as previewing the Oscars for Best Direcor and the Supporting Roles.

Until then keep coming back to www.tellybetting.com for more Dancing On Ice and Celebrity Big Brother news. And if it is sports betting you're interested in then check us out at www.100betting.co.uk.

Me Maxi Mini-Me Bet!

This link is to a Heat article about tonights show.

'On tonight’s show, as part of this week’s shopping task, the housemates will be forced to showcase the talent that made them famous in the first place.'

You just know Verne Troyer will be funny. Coolio does well as well. The rest are just too unpredictable. I think Mini-Me's price will contract further tonight and have rebacked him with a vengeance.

Rumours about Steve Strange going in persist, he is one to back if it happens.

Finally, here's hoping Lucy shows off her talents in the diary room - see left!

Not Quite 'One Million Dollars....'

....but a great start all the same. I hope you got on. It was quite funny watching him with the suitcase. You forget how small he actually is.

I have layed back all my 5-1 (and a little 4-1) at 2.46 on Betfair and have a lovely green book to play with.

His price will probably shorten a little further but I suspect others will look to get out soon on him and I wanted to bank the profit now.

No real data available yet to analyse but it looks to be a great house so far.

Time to get them drunk, Big Brother!

American Idol Betting: A New Tool

I have high hopes for this one!

I have used Trendrr on X Factor with mixed results in the past. I still think it is very promising as a TV betting tool. Previously, I had targeted it on Youtube video uploads but now I am going to target Twitter. This microblogging service is starting to really take off in the US and is becoming massive. Trendrr will allow me to count how many times a contestants name is mentioned on Twitter and graph it to monitor as a trend over a period of weeks. It will give very quick updates of popularity.

We shall see when the final 12 American Idol contestants are chosen.

Happy New Year by the way. Roll on Celebrity Big Brother.