One thing to remember: Academy members nominate in the first instance to get it down to five nominees per category. They then vote again on those five nominees to decide on a winner.
A strong theme for this year’s Oscars could well be that of optimism. In the midst of an economic crisis that has crippled the USA one has a funny feeling that the ‘against all odds’ and feel good films could out. So too could the patriotic vote - the American movie industry needs its films to do well.
Leading Actor
2000 Russell Crowe Gladiator
2001 Denzel Washington Training Day
2002 Adrien Brody The Pianist
2003 Sean Penn Mystic River
2004 Jamie Foxx Ray
2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman Capote
2006 Forest Whitaker The Last King of Scotland
2007 Daniel Day-Lewis There Will Be Blood
Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:
* Take out Adrien Brody’s performance in The Pianist and the other seven performances were of strong, larger than life characters - even the Deputy Dog sounding Capote.
* Performances of real life characters won in 04, 05 and 06, suggesting that another for the 2008 winner would be overload.
* After four consecutive winners from films set in the ‘past’, time could be ripe for a contemporary winner.
Leading Actress
2000 Julia Roberts Erin Brokovich
2001 Halle Berry Monster’s Ball
2002 Nicole Kidman The Hours
2003 Charlize Theron Monster
2004 Hillary Swank Million Dollar Baby
2005 Reese Witherspoon Walk The Line
2006 Helen Mirren The Queen
2007 Mario Cotillard La Vie en Rose
Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:
* Take out Reese Witherspoon and the other seven winners have all portrayed women with a definite ‘struggle’. Whether they fought against the ‘system’, the law or history, they in essence gave a performance of unexpected strength in the face of adversity in all its forms.
* The last two winners have been historical figures and just like the Leading Actor category, I cannot see them repeating the dose this year. They also both happened to be foreign actresses - again a third in row is very unlikely.
* The last eight winners have also tended to follow a historical (set pre-1990)-contemporary repeating pattern. If the pattern holds true then I’d be looking at a contemporary winner.
Best Picture
2000 Gladiator
2001 A Beautiful Mind
2002 Chicago
2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2004 Million Dollar Baby
2005 Crash
2006 The Departed
2007 No Country for Old Men
Looking at the past eight winners there are definite trends that could point us in the right direction:
* The first thing to notice is that the Best Picture is exactly that - the best film taking into account the some of all its parts. In fact only Million Dollar Baby provided an Oscar for Actor/Actress in a Leading Role - Hillary Swank.
* The last three winners have all been quite graphic, especially the last two in which violence was the running theme. A more serene winner this year?
* From 2001 onwards the winner has tended to be a film in which there is more than one main character, more than one big named actor/actress and certainly from 2002 onwards the portrayal of a ‘multi-character journey’. There’s no real ‘solo’ film where one big named actor/actress dominates in the line up of past winners.So there you have it, some pointers that should help you in your trading of the Oscars. Final nominations are announced on the 22nd January and I'll be back then to apply these key points to the final five in each category, as well as previewing the Oscars for Best Direcor and the Supporting Roles.
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...please where can I buy a unicorn?
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