X Factor 2015 Voting Stats

Vote 1
Louisa Johnson - 15.9%
4th Impact - 11.2%
Anton Stephans -10.7%
Monica Michael - 9.1%
Ché Chesterman - 8.7%
Lauren Murray - 8.4%
Reggie 'N' Bollie - 7.4%
Seann Miley Moore -7.3%
Mason Noise - 6.1%
Max Stone - 5.8%
Alien Uncovered - 4.8%
Kiera Weathers - 3.4%
Bupsi - 1.2%

Vote 2
Louisa Johnson - 15.3%
Reggie 'N' Bollie - 13.0%
Ché Chesterman - 12.5%
Lauren Murray - 11.2%
4th Impact - 9.0%
Max Stone - 8.5%
Anton Stephans - 7.5%
Monica Michael - 6.3%
Mason Noise - 6.1%
Seann Miley Moore - 5.5%
Kiera Weathers - 5.1%

Vote 3
Louisa Johnson - 16.4%
Lauren Murray -14.1%
Ché Chesterman - 14.0%
4th Impact - 13.2%
Reggie 'N' Bollie - 13.0%
Mason Noise - 9.8%
Anton Stephans - 8.0%
Monica Michael - 6.1%
Max Stone - 5.4%

Vote 4
Reggie 'N' Bollie - 21.6%
Louisa Johnson - 21.5%
Lauren Murray - 14.8%
4th Impact - 13.8%
Ché Chesterman - 12.8%
Anton Stephans - 12.3%
Mason Noise - 3.2% (left after Saturday freeze)

Vote 5
Ché Chesterman - 22.2%
Reggie 'N' Bollie - 22.1%
Louisa Johnson - 21.1%
Lauren Murray - 18.4%
4th Impact - 16.2%

Vote 6
Louisa Johnson - 31.5%
Reggie 'n' Bollie - 27.0%
Ché Chesterman - 20.9%
Lauren Murray - 20.6%

Vote 7 Freeze
Louisa Johnson - 44.5%
Reggie 'n' Bollie - 35.2%
Che Chesterman - 20.3%

Vote 7 Final
Louisa Johnson - 53.9%
Reggie 'n' Bollie - 38.9%
Che Chesterman - 7.2% (left after Saturday freeze)

A revealing set of results. Louisa won most weeks, though interestingly almost always by a slim margin. The only other two contestants to win a week were Reggie n Bollie (week four) and Che (week five) . The vote for weeks 5 and 6 are notable in how evenly split they were. 4th Impact's vote help up pretty well throughout. Mason Noise died on his arse in week four. No run away winner this year!

The X Factor 2015 Final

This series of X Factor has certainly been unique in that compared to some years the contestants have been pretty decent, the ratings have all but fallen through the floor. Simon Cowell's yearly battle with Strictly has become a thing of the past - there is no competition to be had - and we're left with a final that lacks much of the enthusiasm of previous years. That said, I'm sure the duets will go down well this Saturday and if they have a 'losers' song like previous years, I'll be keeping an eye out for the one and only Wagner, who always 'makes it his own'.

The three finalists:

• Che Chesterman (Boys - Nick Grimshaw)   -   20-1
• Louisa Johnson (Girls - Rita Ora)   -  1-6
• Reggie 'N' Bollie (Groups - Cheryl Fernandez-Versini)   -  5-1

Final 3 Songs:

Che Chesterman
FAVOURITE SONG: Amy Winehouse - Tears Dry on Their Own / Marvin Gaye - Ain't No Mountain High Enough
NEW SONG: Bruno Mars/Amy Winehouse - Valerie
DUET: TBC

Louisa Johnson
FAVOURITE SONG: James Brown - This Is A Man's World
NEW SONG: Yolanda Adams - I Believe I Can Fly
DUET: Possibly Rita Ora

Reggie n Bollie
FAVOURITE SONG: One Direction - What Makes You Beautiful / OMI - Cheerleader
NEW SONG: Spice Girls - Spice Up Your Life / Outhere Brothers - Boom Boom
DUET: TBC

All three finalists are actually pretty different this year. Not as though being in the bottom three is the kiss of death, but it's not a plus point so I can understand Che Chesterman being the rank outsider here. That said he has picked up his performance over the last couple of weeks in part due to some excellent song choices. His songs for the final are somewhat unspiring though unfortunately (note: the duets are not yet known so I can't comment on that).

Louisa Johnson being so young and that being a 'dreams do come true' narrative likely works to her advantage. She certainly has a great voice too, though the odd duff song choice hasn't always made her sound like a million dollars (and again I don't think the choices for the final are the best). She's never been bottom 3 which of course is a major indicator that she's popular. At 1/6 though, where is the value?

Which leaves us with the fun act Reggie 'N' Bollie. I say 'fun act' because 'joke acts' in X Factor do appear to shifted more into the fun category over the past few years, so it would be a bit much to accuse them of being a joke. You could of course say that they're not very good, but that's a different kind of criticism. At 5-1, with decent songs for the final and again due to not being bottom three so far, Reggie n Bollie could feasibly be the very first year that this kind of act wins. Again they have a narrative and on top of that the new method of free app voting perhaps makes it less likely that people will vote for 'serious' acts. At the odds available I'd go for them!

Selection: Reggie 'N' Bollie to WIN at 5-1

Wladimir Klitschko vs Tyson Fury

I likely risk being labelled an old fart for pointing that that boxing isn't what it was 'in my day' but there's something to that. We really don't see all that many 'fight nights' worth staying in for. There aren't many big name bouts to speack of nor an awful lot of characters in boxing now. Tyson Fury certainly ticks that last box though. Depending on your point of view, he likely falls somewhere between a character and a nutcase, what with his karaoke moments and often bizarre outbursts. In terms of character, he's quite the opposite of Klitschko in almost every way.

Of course none of the theatrics matter once you're in the ring and of the two fighters Klitschko clearly has far more going for him. In terms of his record and boxing ability, other than questioning how exciting he is to watch, Klitschko is a formidable opponent and the few blips he's experienced in his career happened over a decade ago now. Fury, although undefeated has not fought a tremendous amount of what I'd call top flight fighters so could be in for a shock come Saturday 28th. On the plus side for him, he matches his oppoent in stature.

As he was in July, Klitschko is 1-4 to win the fight, which is about right in my view. He's not going to make it easy for Fury to get past his guard and is an intelligent fighter. If Tyson does get through though, he has a puncher's chance as Klitschko's main weakness from the past is that on the rare occasions he does get caught, he's not quick to recover. There's not much value in betting at 1-4 really so I would be tempted to go for Wladimir Klitschko by KO, TKO or Disqualification at Evens. I don't think it'll go the distance as I see Fury going all guns blazing in the early and middle rounds in an all or nothing approach.

This is Fury's chance to get his hands on the WBA, WBO, IBF and IBO heavyweight titles so I in no way undermine his determination and focus, but I do believe he's got his work cut out.

Selection: Wladimir Klitschko by KO, TKO or Disqualification at Even Money

Bosnia-Herzegovina versus Republic of Ireland, Friday, November 13

The Republic of Ireland is likely to be without key personnel for its European Championship qualifying play-off first leg in Zenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina on Friday. Defender John O’Shea and striker Jonathan Walters are suspended after being sent off and booked, respectively, in the 2-1 loss in Poland and striker Shane Long, who has an ankle injury, is also a major doubt.

The only previous meeting between the sides, in a friendly in Dublin in 2012, resulted in a 1-0 win for the home side, but the Bosnians have since qualified for 2014 FIFA World Cup, so may be a different proposition this time. Indeed, they’re on a winning streak, having defeated Andorra 3-0, Wales 2-0 and Cyprus 3-2 in their last three competitive matches to finish third in Group B behind Belgium and Wales. They’re looking to make it to their first UEFA European Championship but, with former Manchester City striker Edin Dzeko leading the line, they’re worthy favourites on home turf.

The lack of top-class centre forward is the obvious weakness in Martin O’Neill’s side, so let’s go for Bosnia-Herzegovina to record a hard-fought 1-0 win.

Selection: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win 1-0 (11/2 with 888Sport and Unibet)

England vs Estonia Prediction (Friday 9th, 19:45)

England has already qualified for the UEFA European Championship, which effectively renders the fixture with Estonia at Wembley on Friday, October 9 meaningless. To have any hope of qualifying, Estonia must not only beat England, but also rely on perennial European whipping boys San Marino to take at least a point off Switzerland in Bern. According to our friends at Oddschecker, both eventualities are 25/1, so only diehard visiting fans are likely to make the trip to northwest London on Friday.

Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal has expressed his hope that Roy Hodgson will spare Wayne Rooney for at least one of the two remaining qualifying fixtures against Estonia and Lithuania (on Monday). Hodgson, for his part, has expressed his desire to finish with a perfect record and hinted that he is more likely to ‘experiment’ in the game against Lithuania, so it will be a surprise if Rooney doesn’t take at least some part on Friday.

It’s worth remembering that only a Wayne Rooney free-kick separated the teams in Tallinn in October, after the hosts were reduced to ten men early in the second half, so there may not be as much between as the 1-x-2 odds of 1/6, 8/1 and 28/1 suggest. Complacency, on the part of the home side, is always a possibility, but there should be no lack of ambition on the part of Jamie Vardy, or debutantes Danny Ings and Delle Alli, if called upon.

With 77 places between the teams, according to official FIFA rankings, and Estonia all but eliminated, an early England goal could put the visitors firmly on the back foot, so let’s try a punt on the Three Lions to win 3-0!

Selection: England to beat Estonia 3-0 (5/1 with Bet365)

CBB Final - James Hill to win

I'm hardly going out on a limb with this one as James Hill is currently 1/3 in the betting, but it seems strange not to state a position on who will win so that's who I'm going to go with. He's played a blinder throughout the series really, and has had the patience of a saint with the likes of Austin, Jenna and Farrah  (who along with former Big Brother contestant Aisleyne Horgan-Wallace managed to help CBB Bit on the Side get taken off the air last night).

Natasha Hamilton similarly has done herself proud, only 'losing it' when at the end of her tether, she's 4-1. Austin is currently third favourite at 8-1. With all of the drama he's caused and the fact that despite his sometimes hateful outbursts he's not quite as one dimensional as Farrah and Jenna, I can see why he's given an outside chance. That said quite often people like the 'good guy' to win these shows, and I'm not sure that Austin fits the bill as far as that definition goes.

That leaves us with Stevi and Chloe at 40-1, Sherrie Hewson at 100-1 and Bobby Davro at 14-1. Bobby has definitely not done himself any harm, acting with a bit of decency and dignity where others have often failed to. I do think the holier-than-thou aspect to him may have grated with some though and he perhaps hasn't been quite as funny and jokey as we would've hoped. Can you blame him with housemates like this lot though!?!

While you're here, check out my Manchester United vs Sunderland prediction on topfourtips.com . 

Selection: James Hill to win CBB

Celebrity Big Brother: Next Eviction

Currently very short odds for Jenna Jameson to be the first out tomorrow night I see (1/5). I can understand why that is the case as she's adapt at either causing trouble or gossiping, typically as part of a terrible twosome. She certainly hasn't done a lot to get people onside. You could say the same for Austin of course, with his shocking and explosive attack on Janice last night turning off a few former fans. He's definitely gone off the rails towards the end of the series. There is at least though I suppose a sad backstory to his violent mood swings though and the general feeling is that he's rather lost in there. The show attracts or indeed seeks out people like that to star in CBB. Austin is 8-1 to go. Janice is 7/2. They're both 'marmite' type characters to be honest.

If persuaded to go for a more ambitious bet oddswise, I'd go with Bobby to go first at 8-1. He's been perfectly nice for the most part, but there may be a feeling with chaos all around that he's being a bit too holier than thou. The reality is that he's one of the more reasonable and fairminded celebs in the house of course, but does that make great TV? Could Bobby slip between the cracks?

Anyone Fancy a Tequila?

If there's one thing to remember about Reality TV betting, it's to not jump the gun. It's important to get a good feel of what's going on before leaping in with a bet. That point was reiterated today when Tila Tequila was kicked out of the Celebrity Big Brother house after just one day! Apparently she had previously posed in Nazi uniform in front of a concentration camp. Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction! There goes her £113,000 appearance fee.

I wouldn't say this years housemates are the biggest names going and unfortunately many of those suggested early on such as Hulk Hogan and Christopher Biggins are absent at present, but there's bound to be fireworks as there is every year, especially once the drinks start flowing. From an early glance I'd say that there are some celebrities in there who don't stand a chance based on attitude alone (Farrah Abraham for instance), others that are a bundle of nerves and will struggle as a result (Gail Porter) and some in there performing the now well established route of going from reality TV show to reality TV show, collecting their cheques along the way.

It's no surprise that former X Factor contestants and unlikely couple Stevi and Chloe are current favourites at 4-1. They're an interested pair and it wouldn't be the first time we'd seen X Factor success cross over to CBB in such a way. Janice Dickinson  at 5-1 second favourite again is no surprise. She's more 'tough as old boots' than 'happy go lucky' but that and her former reality TV pedigree may well mean that she's in for the long haul. It's still early days right now and it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. Stay tuned!

IAAF 2015 World Championships - Bolt vs Gatlin

A bleary eyed me decide to stay up for the start of the 2015 Athletics World Championships last night as it aired on BBC2 throughout the night. Held in Beijing it's a shame it hasn't gained more momentum considering it's essentially no different from the Olympics in terms of talent and big names. Still, the time difference puts pay to that.

It was great to see Jessica Ennis-Hill get off to a good start in the Heptathlon - she currently leads. Katarina Johnson-Thompson too, is right up there in contention despite a monumentally shaky start in the high jumper, where at one point she was in danger of not registering a height at all. Mo Farah also impressed by retaining his 10,000m crown, despite recent headlines and almost getting tripped over half a dozen times during the race.

I hadn't really thought of placing a wager on any event, but was slightly surprise at the current odds of the Men's 100 meters. It was already largely seen as largely a two horse races before Usain Bolt and controversial figure Justin Gatlin breezed into the semis and I don't think the performances so far have changed that (though what an impressive 9.91secs run by young Trayvon Bromell currently at 40-1). Gatlin's time was 9.83, Bolt's 9.96

In terms of his own abilities though, it seems clear that Bolt is struggling. His start today was woeful and when it's all about 100ths of a second that counts for a lot. Getting out of the blocks fast has never been a strength of his, but even by those standards it was poor. His time wasn't unimpressive but the run just didn't look easy for him in comparison to a relaxed and super fast Gatlin. Let us not forget that Gatlin is undefeated since 2013 and is running the kind of times (9.74 this year - a PB)  that put him a clear 1/10 of a second ahead of anyone elses performance. He's been consistent too.

With all of this in mind, I was surprised to see the current men's 100m odds as Gatlin 9/10 , Bolt 13/10. It's nigh on an even money shot and at those odds I'd definitely go for Justin Gatlin. I'm just not convinced Bolt is 'keeping his powder dry' and think the current prices are largely down to his reputation rather than reality. We'll find out tomorrow morning though of course :)


Update: Everything pointed to Gatlin so well played to Bolt. It was something of a fairy-tale ending really. He performed at his very best, finally getting a good start and keeping his cool following an almost disastrous semi final earlier that day. As for Gatlin, his race just didn't go to plan and tightening towards near the end certainly didn't help his cause when only 1/100th of a second separated him and Bolt.

Who's Going Into the Celebrity Big Brother House?

Well, it's that time of year again when a bunch of half mad individuals you recognise but can't quite put a name to the face of are forced to occupy the same place together for far too long. No I'm not talking about the houses of parliament, but instead the Celebrity Big Brother House.

There are already a hundred and one A to Z listers rumoured to be taking part but since I haven't got forever instead of working my way down that list, I'll give mention to those currently listed as favourites to 'win' CBB 2015.  The logic being that in at least some cases this is for good reason. The bookmakers aren't hanging about, with plenty of them already pricing up countless celebrities. It has to be said though, that bookies aren't exactly going to be offering competitive odds at this stage, it's more about making easy money early on from those eager to bet on the competition.

With the US vs UK theme this year it seems likely that a lot of the touted US housemates will be entering the house. One short priced contender right now is David Hasselhoff. The Hoff  is very popular here and something of an anglophile himself so it stands to reason that if he goes in, he'll do well. Other potentials from across the pond include Hulk Hogan (WWE wrestler, recently revealed to have made racist comments so might be looking to fix his reputation), Janice Dickinson (again has been in the news due to her claims about Bill Cosby's behaviour towards her) and Austin Armacost (US reality TV show contestant who had a relationship with fashion designer Mark Jacobs). There's definite headline potential with this bunch.

As for the UK, favourite amongst them right now is the irrepressible Christopher Biggins. With a stellar reality TV record already in place, it could be argued that he is something of a 'nations favourite' already, so it's no surprise that his odds are short (7-1) with Coral. He was a close friend to Cilla Black, so whether that could have a bearing on his likelihood of taking part, or his narrative within the house if he does enter, I don't know. Other than Biggins, it's not the most inspiring bunch of Brits rumoured thus far. Bobby Davro, Duncan James, Eamonn Holmes and so on. Controversial 'Selfie Queen' and wife of politician Simon Danczuk, Karen Danczuk is in the running though. She could be entertaining!

The potential UK vs US aspect is certainly intriguing. I'll go into more detail, odds and bet wise, once we actually know who's entering the house.

Wladimir Klitschko vs Tyson Fury Thoughts

How have you been? I've been sat here desperately trying to avoid writing about Big Brother for TellyBetting since I only like the Celebrity version. Well that and comparing online casinos at thecasinodb.com following a recent barmstorming real life performance on the roulette in Nottingham. Anyway, on to a match up that's slightly more interesting than whatshisface vs whatsherface in a no doubt riveting BB final, namely Wladimir Klitschko vs Tyson Fury.

It's pretty early to be looking at this now official match-up between Klitschko and Fury (the fight is set for 24^th October). Betting odds are available though and this is boxing after all, so I'd rather get my fight thoughts in before the inevitable postponement of the bout due to a broken fingernail or the like. I jest of course since regardless of your opinion of these two, they aren't the type to duck out of a match up.

To be honest, I'm looking forward to the run up almost as much as the fight itself. Klitschko has little to prove at this point in his career so usually lets the other fighter make a fool of himself mostly before, but sometimes also during and after the fight. God only knows what that could lead to during the fight promotions since Tyson Fury, is on occasion, 'as mad as a box of frogs'. Who can forget the time, when after winning a bout, he was handed a microphone and proceeded to break into song. He has form for this of course, having sang Bette Midler's 'Wind beneath my wings' at a post fight press conference after defeating Kevin Johnson. You can't make this stuff up. Anyway on to the fight.

Current odds see Klitschko at around 1/4 to win the bout, with Fury at 7/2 and the draw 30-1 with some bookmakers. This is unsurprising when you factor in that Klitschko is undefeated in over a decade against the best the division has to offer (admittedly is doesn't always have much to offer!). Granted Fury is unbeaten too, but he's only made a step up in class over his last few fights. We also have to realise that we tend to overestimate the chances of our domestic fighters in big fights.

In Fury's favour, Klitschko gets to take on someone who, for a change, more than matches him in stature, and who can certainly throw a punch. Fury at least knows what he has to do here, as the fight is to be held away from home in Germany so the prospect of him winning on points just doesn't seem all that likely to me. It's an all or nothing fight for him and I definitely see him at least attempting to go for the knockout. In doing so he may get exposed. Will he get picked apart at this level, against a fighter who, while not 'fun' to watch, is technically minded and has been there, done that and got the t-shirt?

I'm not the biggest fan of betting on odds-ons, so 1/4 doesn't really appeal. I'm more inclined to go with Wladimir Klitschko by KO, TKO or Disqualification at 5/4 with a small cover bet on the same for Tyson Fury at 6-1. It's not a fight I see going the distance, and I rate the experience and consistency of Klitschko over the punchers chance of Fury.

Sports Roundup

My reading of the women's World Cup Final was on the money results-wise, but how it panned out was quite something to behold. Who would've thought the US would've put so many goals past Japan during the first 15 minutes of the game. It had shades of Brazil vs Germany in the men's World Cup about it, where the Germans just kept putting them past Brazil without reply as if it was the easiest thing ever. Hopefully next time the England girls can go one better and make the final. As long as the US aren't in it!

 In boxing news I was sad to hear that Carl Froch is hanging up his gloves for the last time. There's speculation that he's scared to take on this opponent or that, but it's all hot air really. Froch was never one to avoid fighters and he really did provide plenty of bang for your buck in terms of the number of exciting bouts he was part of. The boxing calendar is a little bare nowadays so Froch retiring is a shame. The main fight I have my eye on right now is September's Wladimir Klitschko (1/4) vs Tyson Fury (7/2). I'll be going into that in more detail sometime soon!

I'll also be featuring a post on the Glorious Goodwood horse racing meeting towards the end of the month. It's been a while since I've taken a punt on any of the major racing meets and how the weather is right now I might even go down at watch it at the course.

In Tennis news, the formidable 33 year old Serena Williams clinched her sixth Wimbledon title beating Spain's Garbine Muguruza 6-4 6-4 and is now in possession of all four major titles, the 'Serena Slam'. Muguruza beat Williams at the French Open just last year but couldn't repeat that feat here. It wasn't an easy tournament for Serena, with Britain's Heather Williams giving her a run for her money in the third round. The win has catapulted Serena Williams into the position of favourite to win 'Overseas Sport Personality of the Year' at currently just over even money on Betfair.

Women's World Cup Final : USA vs Japan

Well the England vs Japan match certainly was both engrossing and heartbreaking in equal measure. You couldn't help to feel sorry for the girls, when Laura Bassett's injury time own goal cruelly put England out of the competition. It just seems like the same old story with England doesn't it, finding heart wrenching ways to exit major competitions. The girls did us proud though that's for sure. Millions stayed up into the early hours to watch the game, and they more than gave it their all, out muscling Japan for much of the game.

Despite Japan's less than impressive performance, we still have to take into account that they are undefeated in this competition. While not exactly prolific scorers they find a way to get the job done as they did four years previous when they won the competition. The US similarly are undefeated and to be honest have looks more impressive throughout this tournament. I'm not sure that I see that changing. Current odds for the match-up are Japan (22/5)  Draw (27/10)  United States (11/13) . The odds are a little on the lean side but I'd be tempted to go for the US at these prices.

Women's World Cup: England vs Japan

I thought being excited about England games was a thing of the past for me, with the dire performances of the men's team managing to disappoint fans in each and every major competition in recent memory. Little did I know I'd be planning to stay up to watch the England women take on last tournaments winners Japan in the semi final of the World Cup. Should they go on to win they'll take on the US, who have been more than formidable, not conceding a single goal in their previous 5 games. They'll be favourites in the final no matter who emerges victorious from this encounter.

It has to be said that the England team has already exceeded expectations, so it's no surprise they find themselves as the outsider in tonight's game. That said they've shown enough that we can't simply write them off, especially if they get off to a good start as they did against Canada in the quarter finals. With Japan at 6/5, England 29/10 and the draw 23/10 there's not an awful lot of meat in the bone. Many pundits anticipate a cagey, low scoring affair, but the tournament has had it's surprises so far and I'm more inclined to think and hope they'll be more action than anticipated.

This is the furthest our women have reached and I expect they will very much for viewing it as a final. The biggest concern for England is the technical prowess of the Japan team. Our women did beat Japan in the group stages last time around though, so this isn't beyond them.Everything taken into account though, Japan have shown more.

No bet for me at these odds, but my heart says England and my head says Japan.

Britain's Got Talent - Voting Figures

I'm as surprised as you are I'm sure, that I actually managed to call Yesterday' Britain's Got Talent final. The voting figures have now been released and reveal what a close call it was between Jules O'Dwyer & Matisse and Jamie Raven in the final.






 Semi-final 1

Côr Glanaethwy - 21.9%
Henry Gallagher - 17.5%
Entity Allstars - 12.8%
Lorraine Bowen - 12.3%
Mitch & Cally the Wonderdog - 11.5%
Becky O'Brien - 11.4%
Billy & Emily England - 7.6%
Andrew Fleming - 2.5%
Ruby Red Performers - 2.5%

Semi-final 2

Jules O'Dwyer & Matisse - 29.3%
Old Men Grooving - 27.1%
Revelation Avenue - 16.3%
Groove Thing - 7.2%
Bonetics - 6.2%
The HoneyBuns - 5.3%
Michael Late - 4.5%
Alison Jiear - 2.7%
Luca Calo - 1.4%


Semi-final 3

Jamie Raven - 33.7%
UDI - 12.4%
IMD Legion - 11.6%
The Kingdom Tenors - 10.8%
Gracie Wickens-Sweet - 10.0%
The Sakyi Five - 8.0%
Ella Shaw - 7.4%
Dylan Byrd - 3.8%
Narinder Dhani - 2.3%


Semi-final 4

Isaac Waddington - 18.6%
The Neales - 17.6%
Boyband - 17.6%
Marc Métral - 16.6%
The Kanneh-Masons - 12.1%
Maia Gough - 8.0%
Lisa Sampson - 5.1%
Jeffrey Drayton - 3.1%
OK WorldWide - 1.3%

Semi-final 5

Calum Scott - 25.6%
Danny Posthill - 20.3%
Jesse-Jane McParland - 14.3%
Jonathan Lutwyche - 13.9%
Emma Jones - 11.5%
Beat Brothers - 6.5%
Misstasia - 4.3%
Chloé Louise Crawford - 2.5%
Peter Lambert - 1.1%

Final

Jules O'Dwyer & Matisse - 22.6%
Jamie Raven - 20.4%
Côr Glanaethwy - 10.7%
Old Men Grooving - 10.2%
Isaac Waddington - 9.7%
Calum Scott - 8.2%
Danny Posthill - 5.3%
Jesse-Jane McParland - 4.2%
The Neales - 3.6%
UDI - 1.9%
Entity Allstars - 1.7%
Boyband - 1.5%

Britain's Got Talent Final

I've been tuning in to the Britain's Got Talent semi final's all week and while not the most inspiring final ever, there's a good mix of acts at least. Over recent years the popularity of countless Diversity imitators seems to have abated a bit, which probably isn't a bad thing.

Welsh choir Cor Glanaethwy are current favourites at 5/4, singer Calum Scott is 2-1, dog act Jules and Matisse 5-1, Isaac Waddington 11-1, magician Jamie Raven 33-1, family singing act The Neales 40-1. Others are at bigger odds. It's a hard one to call bet wise. I had more confidence that the momentum behind Sweden's Eurovision entry would bag the win, than Cor Glanaethwy here at similar odds due to the momentum it had gathered over a period of time. Running order is everything is these competitions though and you can be sure that both Cor Glanaethwy and Calum Scott will get prime tail end slots.

There's possibly some value in the each way market, with plenty of acts in with a decent shot of clinching a top 3 position at 1/5 of the odds but again with some acts 'nailed on' for good slots, it's not an easy feat to even make top 3. It looks like two wild card acts are set to make the final too. That complicates matters slightly, though being that they failed to win their semi finals that somewhat reduces their threat.

Since there's not a huge amount of value in Cor Glanaethwy, I'm going to go with a win bet on dog act Jules and Matisse at 5-1 on the basis that we're a nation of animal lovers, a comparable act has won in the past, and as there are a number of singing acts, it might water down their vote somewhat. Maybe I'm barking mad, we'll find out tonight.

Eurovision Televote vs Jury Results

I was glad to see the Swedish Eurovision Entry manage to secure the victory at the weekend. For a long time it had started to look like the Russian entry might edge ahead.  At the half way point though that all changed.

Following the competition the Televote and Jury results were released. For the life of me I don't know why they still use a Jury when a pure telephone vote would be the fairest way of working it. That said, the outcome really would've been quite different with Italy romping home to a convincing win and Russia just pipping Sweden to second place.

Of course the dire performance of the UK entry is consistent across both types of voting, confirming that it was the musical turd that many had considered it to be.

Eurovision Update (Updated with Bet Suggestions)

Well, it's certainly come around fast hasn't it? The song contest us Brits take about as seriously as a Carry On Film is once again almost upon us. Graham Norton will no doubt be knocking a few drinks back and laughing along with it, as will I! I already gave a pretty thorough overview of my Eurovision bet selections back in April and not much has changed odds wise.Sweden's Entry and still favourite Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes has gone out slightly since that time from 6/4 to 2-1 and my proposed place selection Norway's Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me is over 65-1 for the win with betfair. The entry is certainly more than up against it to win, but I am hoping for decent odds for a Top 4 or 5 finish. It  has to get through the second semi final on Thursday first though, so the performance there could slightly alter its place and win odds. The results are revealed in random order though, so not a great deal can be discerned from them. I'll check the odds on the day to see it it's worth betting then.

The first semi final was on last night featuring  Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, F.Y.R. Macedonia, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Serbia and The Netherlands. Ten of the sixteen countries move on to the Grand Final on Saturday. Five countries, included the UK, have magically pre-qualified for the final. Confused yet? Most likely you won't have the stomach to get through three Eurovisions in some kind of Groundhod Day-esque nightmare, so to cut a long story short Moldova, Netherlands, Finland, Macedonia, Belarus and Denmark have already got the boot. Russia was the standout and has come down in the betting odds (now 3-1). It's an odd one to judge because politically Russia is currently poles apart from a 'Eurovision vibe' but at the same time their song this year cynically or otherwise ticks every box, inclusive, humanity themed, anthemic, and so who knows how this will go down with voters. They avoided getting booed at least, unlike last year.

As naff as I make it sound, there legitimately are a fair few good songs in the 2015 Eurovision, which makes it a tricky one to call. Expect another update before the final.

Update: The background visuals for the Swedish entry really were something else. Its going to be difficult to top, and I can well see why it's still short favourite. I'd be tempted to have a bet on this to win at 6/4, and a bet on  Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me to come top four. Odds for that are a decent 4-1.

Floyd Mayweather Jr v Manny Pacquiao

On Sunday May 3rd at 5:30am UK time you'll either be having a late one, or waking up at the crack of dawn (I'm guessing the former) to watch the highly anticipated Floyd Mayweather Jr v Manny Pacquiao match. Following several attempts, it's hard to believe the fight we've all been waiting for is finally going ahead. Many will say that it's years too late, Mayweather is now 38, but it's still a mouth watering prospect for boxing fans in a time where super fights are considered a thing of the past.  The encounter has been dubbed the fight of the century and could gross a staggering $400million, so I doubt Pacquiao will grumble too much at the 60-40 split in Mayweather's favour.

Most bookmakers currently have Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs)    at 1/2 and Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KOs) at 15/8 to win, which matches up with pundit predictions for the most part. Mayweather's flawless record is largely down to his defensive genius. He's just so hard to hit. Excellent hand speed, accuracy and the ability to adapt to whatever his opponent throws at him make him a formidable opponent.

Mayweather's desire and ability to avoid getting hit is at odds with Pacquiao's ability to throw and often land damaging combinations. That's what makes this a fascinating match up. Some of them are bound to get through, even if Mayweather does display his trademark first class defense. Pacquiao's record in recent years though has some arguing that he's a fighter in decline, so will he be able to land enough to make it count? He does gives it everything and is relentless, so it's all about making those power punches count.

The way I see it, it will likely be an all action encounter, but neither fighter has much of a knock out record over recent years, so I'd expect it to go the distance. As much as I'd like a Pacquiao win, it's hard to see beyond Mayweather's boxing intelligence and hand speed so at 8/11 he's not a bad bet. Make sure you recover the draw though. This is boxing after all.

Bet: Mayweather by Decision or Technical Decision - 8/11  Draw - 20-1

Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Tips

On May 23th 2015 the international music event we love to hate is back once again. Since Terry Wogan hung up his hat in recent years we instead get to see Graham Norton find fun and frivolous ways to take the mickey out of most of Europe... and Israel... and even Australia this year as a one off (no I'm not joking).

 The show, the 60th Eurovision Song Contest, is beamed to us live from Vienna, Austria, on account of last year's winning anthem Conchita Wurst's bond-esque 'Rise Like a Phoenix'. Wurst's win caused quite a stir in Russia where they toyed with the idea of launching their own equally dire Eurovision style song contest in protest. Even so, the song topped Russian download charts two days after the competition.

This year we currently already have a short favourite, Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes. This entry from Sweden ticks the appealing 'dance anthem' box, but at just 6/4 there's not an awful lot of meat on the bone. Norway's moody entry Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me hold's more appeal for me, so would be my tip and it's currently a massive 55-1 on Betfair at time of posting. It's a really genuinely good track. It really comes down to what kind of song the judges and viewers take to, a David Guetta sound of 'Heroes' or 'A Monster Like Me' which is in a similar vein to Christina Aguilera and A Great Big World's "Say Something". There for top 3,4,5 type bets with some bookmakers. I can definitely see 'A Monster Like Me' being value there.

It's still very early days of course so these are just preliminary thoughts rather than firm betting tips. You'll notice that I haven't even mentioned the UK's entry being in with a chance. Take a listen and find out why.

Celebrity Big Brother 2015 Rumours

Well, it's that time of year again where a bunch of half mad individuals you recognise but can't quite put a face to the name are forced to occupy the same place together. No I'm not talking about the houses of parliament, but instead the Big Brother house.

There are already a thousand and one 'rumoured' housemates to

General Election 2015: The Current Picture

The guardian's Election Poll Projection collates all available polls of note and attempts to draw conclusions with regard to how many seats each party will win come election day. UK polling isn't anywhere near as spot on as in the States, with constituency polling limited at best. That said, it's still possible to build a broad idea of the impact of voting intentions, debates and so on.

The biggest surprise in this elections polling so far, is how it's been stuck in deadlock territory for so long. In fact  so much so that at time of posting Labour and the Conservatives are both projected to win 271 seats. Unless there is a major shift before the election, or the projections are way out, a little movement this way or that in the polls seems largely academic as neither party will be able to secure a majority.

With that in mind, it all comes down to who is willing to deal with whom to secure either a coalition government or alternatively vote by vote agreements under a minority government. Should current projects be accurate it's very difficult to see how Tories would cobble together a coalition to begin with. Even an ambitious/fanciful pact with the Liberal Democrats + UKIP + DUP wouldn't get them over the line. As for Labour, an SNP coalition would likely comfortably see them gain a majority, though politically that move might not be the most popular in England. A Labour minority government operating vote by vote with the SNP could feasibly work though.

Who out of the Tories and Labour gain the most seats could at least symbolically impact the likelihood of this outcome or that. Currently the bookmakers have a Labour minority government at 2-1, a Conservative minority at 3-1 and a repeat of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition at 7-1. Whoever out of Labour or Conservatives  claims the authority to form a government will need to get their Queen' Speech and Budget voted through first. It could get messy.

Grand National Tips

Here at TellyBetting we're not only about reality TV. Any televised event, sports based or otherwise is fair game. With that in mind how could we resist casting an eye upon one of the nations most treasured sporting event, The Grand National.

The roar of the crowds is almost overwhelming at Aintree during the Grand National and this Saturday those at the track and the rest of us glued to our TV screens will get to be part of that excitement. 40 horses or there about will once again cover this 4 mile+ course, jumping and hopefully clearing 30 fences over two circuits.

There have been some big priced national winners over the years, many highlighted on the outsider horse racing blog, which was bound to be the case I suppose since the race has been run since 1836. Who can forget the 100-1 winner Mon Mome in 2009 and even more recently Auroras Encore at 66-1 in 2013.

As for this year, we have a short priced favourite in the form of last year's Irish National winner Shutthefrontdoor. Hotly tipped, there's no doubting that it's in with a shot, but at 7-1 there's not really a lot of meat on the bone. Betting on the Grand National is one of the few national betting events that is more than often all about the fun even if you have placed a small wager on it. With that in mind, I'd rather bet on an outsider or two in the hope of winning big. 

The bigger priced selections I'm going to go for are First Lieutenant at 33-1 and Dolatulo at 40-1. First Lieutenant, ridden by Nina Carberry, who would become the first ever female jockey to ride a Grand National winner, still has some mileage in the tank. Dolatulo, winner of the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day looks to hold promise too. Formally trained by Paul Nicholls and now Warren Greatrex, who's had a great season, Dolatulo is handy over the fences and in with a shot here.

Both are a bit of a punt to be honest, but with a field of near 40, if your luck's in it's in and if it's not, it's not.

Enjoy the race!

'Leaders Debate' and 'The Voice' Follow Up

Not a bad few results of late. The Voice 2015 final went very much along the lines put forward in our Winning Act Betting Tips post, where we suggested fireman Stevie McCrorie would win. I definitely feel that Stevie McCrorie's backstory aided his victory in a series where the brief nature of the live stages often means that it's hard to draw an affinity to any of the contestants. He did have a sterling voice too though as did the runner up Lucy O'Byrne. Will.i.am did a great job of promoting his act and she and McCrorie are totally different so there was an aspect of 'apple and oranges' about it. It's a shame the BBC won't release voting percentages as I'd love to have seen how close the result was.

Regarding our Leaders Debate Bingo post, it was slightly mixed fortunes. We suggested that Nigel Farage would win the debate, when the actual 'poll of polls' result showed that it was pretty much a three way tie between David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage with the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon narrowly behind (though she did win one of the individual polls).

We had more success on the 'bingo' tips, where if a certain phrase is mentioned during the debate, you win. "Hard working families" was said during the debate as was "Tony Blair" which we highlighted at generous odds of 13/2. This bet was a great opportunity because with seven leaders involved they all spoke at a mile a minute in order to make the most of their airtime.

Leaders' Debate Bingo

Tomorrow it's the televised leaders debate, taking place in Salford. Leaders from seven political parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party. No Northern Irish presence) take to the stage to tell us why they deserve our vote. Many will no doubt avoid tuning in, others will have a sick bag handy, but some of us will brave it.

 Much has been said about the debate running order in recent days, with David Cameron getting much later slots in the debate, effectively giving him the right of reply over Ed Miliband on numerous occasions, and the 'last word' right at the very end of the program. Miliband is well positioned, physically at least, for this debate though (podium order: Natalie Bennett, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon and David Cameron). He also exceeded expectations, according to the polls, in Sky's recent Cameron vs Miliband interview.

Current odds have both David Cameron and Ed Miliband at 4/1 to win the leaders' debate with the other party leaders ranging from 10/1 to 25/1.  Bar one of course because the favourite to win the debate is in fact UKIP's Nigel Farage at 7/4. I can't say I'm surprised really, as despite the polarising  politics, he does know how to hold himself. He's calm, forthright and focused. A populist or some would say opportunist. The anti politician. Unlike the Labour and Tory leaders who are neck and neck in the polls, he doesn't really have to worry about losing a point or two and being deemed a failure. This is an opportunity for UKIP and I can see why, with the vote being split so many ways, Farage would be favourite to win this debate.

Should you be for up for a game of Leaders' Debate Bingo, I suggest betting on the 'to say at any time' phrase market. This is a long debate, so I'm surprised to see what appear to be some quite generous odds on the face of it. 11/8 for the term 'hard working families' seems generous for instance, as does a mention of Tony Blair at 13/2. It's a 2 hour long debate. I recommend choosing a handful of these.


Selections: Nigel Farage to win debate 7/4

The Voice 2015 : Winning Act Betting Tips

This Saturday sees the grand final of 2015's The Voice UK. As usual the format shifts with such regularity (blind auditions, battle phase, knockout stage, live shows) that it's hard to form a firm view of the front runners until very late in the day. A couple of the potential winner in my view were kicked out by Sir Tom Jones in the knock out rounds. Coming into the final Rita Ora is the only judge without an act in the final, which explains her down in the dumps expression at the end of the previous week's show.

These are the current odds for the remaining four acts:

 Current Odds

Stevie McCrorie	9/10
Sasha Simone	4
Lucy O'Byrne	6
Emmanuel Nwamadi	7

I'd say that these betting odds about right to be honest. I'm very surprised that Emmanuel Nwamadi has made it this far in the competition. While his super low, then high voice is something of a novelty, I do feel that he's butchered a couple of songs at various points and didn't exactly shine during the song with Stevie McCrorie and judge Ricky Wilson last week. His only real chance of winning is if the other acts under perform and Ricky picks the perfect song choice for him. We've seen with these shows time and time again, that picking the perfect song choice is always a bit hit and miss.

I'll be interested to see what the ever eccentric will.i.am has up his sleeve for his only remaining act Lucy O'Byrne. His leftfield approach has reaped rewards in the past. That said I'm not at all surprised to see firefighter Stevie McCrorie as clear favourite at 9/10. He has a stellar voice as well as a good backstory and story ark. The latter is especially important in The Voice as the format means that we fly through the various stages without really getting to know the first thing about those taking part.

Bet Selection: Stevie McCrorie  9/10